Despite concerns about limitations, offshore student visa awards for higher education reached all-time highs in late 2024. What implications does this have for policy reforms and migration?

Overview

University lobby groups were initially outraged by the revelation of Ministerial Direction 111, but they have subsequently stopped speaking out. Why? The most recent statistics on student visas reveals an unexpected finding.

Breakthrough Offshore Student Visa Awards

Offshore student visa grants for higher study have reached an all-time high, breaking even the marks set in late 2022, according to new data released in November and December of 2024. Once a top worry among university lobbyists, the dreaded visa caps seem to be nonexistent.

Overall offshore student visa awards are still greater than in 2023, despite a minor decline from 2022. The Treasury’s net migration estimate of 340,000 for 2024–2025 may still be underestimated if this increasing trend persists into January 2025. This brings up a crucial policy question: would net migration have been higher or lower as a result of the previously suggested student caps?

Trends in Foreign Student Visas by Nation

When comparing the approvals of offshore student visas in December 2024 to December 2023, it becomes clear that:

1. China: increased from 6,574 to 6,855 with a grant rate of 95.7%.
2. India: increased from 2,523 to 3,410 with a grant rate of 87.3%.
3. Nepal: Raised to 834 (up from 781) with a grant rate of 85.6%.
4. Pakistan: Raised to 254 (up from 129) with a grant rate of 61.5%.
5. Philippines: Dropped from 741 to 382 with a grant percentage of 87.8%.
6. Vietnam: Dropped from 1,105 to 907 with a grant rate of 85.3%.
7. Colombia: Dropped from 640 to 196, with a grant rate of 83.4%.

Difficulties with Onshore Student Visas

8,890 applications for onshore student visas were received in December 2024. Although it is less than the peak that occurred between June and September of 2024, the backlog is still quite large—probably more than 100,000 applications.

In December 2024, 8,881 visas for onshore applicants were approved, including:

• 3,095 awards for principal applicants in higher education.
• 3,363 awards for primary candidates in vocational education and training (VET).

A greater percentage of students are still being recruited by the VET industry from onshore sources, a practice that is frequently denounced as ‘poaching’.

But the overall rate of onshore grants has fallen precipitously:

• December 2024: 78.2% (as opposed to December 2023: 93.0% and December 2022: 99.0%).

The system is being further taxed by the rise in appeals to the Administrative Review Tribunal (A.R.T.) as a result of this decrease.

The Policy Conundrum and Prospects

There is still a significant problem: considerably more students, recent graduates, skilled workers, and working vacationers are applying for permanent residence than there are spots available. This is a well-known effect of the surge in student visas.

Governments in the past have reacted quickly to these booms, but the present administration has been sluggish to impose further regulations. There will probably be more policy tightening, but it might not happen until after the next election.