The Bank of Canada predicts that due to growth and uncertainty in recent trends and policies, Canada may fall short of its target to lower the percentage of temporary residents in the population.

Over the next three years, the Bank of Canada predicts that the federal government may fall short of its target of lowering the proportion of temporary residents in Canada’s population. The government declared in March that by 2027, they wanted to reduce their contribution from 6.2% to 5%.

The Bank of Canada has forecast that this goal may not be reached, nevertheless. Non-permanent residents (NPRs) made up 6.8% of the population at the beginning of April, according to the bank’s monetary policy report. This percentage was greater than it was at the time of the March statement, and it is anticipated to rise in the near future.

According to the research, there is “considerable uncertainty” surrounding these forecasts, and information about modifications to the majority of temporary residence permit schemes is expected later this year. As more measures are unveiled and more information about program modifications becomes available, the projections will be updated.

As per the statement made by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the forthcoming immigration levels plan would incorporate measures to tackle the surge of temporary residents. The plan will be expanded to accommodate the entry of both permanent and temporary immigrants. Following discussions with equivalents from the provinces and territories as well as other interested parties, this proposal will be presented in the fall.

After talks between the federal government and its counterparts in the provinces and territories earlier this spring, targets are anticipated to be completed throughout the summer. Additionally, the government has taken action to control the sharp increase of temporary immigrants entering the country for education or employment. A two-year cap on the number of overseas students was established, with the announcement taking effect in January.

In comparison to the same period in 2023, a record year for student permits, the first five months of 2024 saw an increase in student permits approved, according to recent IRCC data. Early in 2024, the government authorized 216,620 student permits, an increase from 200,505 during the same period in 2023.

Nevertheless, the current IRCC data may not yet reflect these adjustments, as the cap on student visas wasn’t finalized until April.