According to data from June, fewer people are coming from Australia temporarily, including working vacationers and students. Learn about the main developments and how they affect net migration.

The government may be too soon to declare success, but recent data on temporary entrants indicates a decline in net migration. According to the most recent data, there were 2.69 million temporary entrants in Australia by the end of June 2024 compared to 2.83 million at the end of March 2024.

Temporary entry numbers usually decrease in the June quarter, but this decline may be more pronounced than expected. The main cause of the decline was a decline in tourists, with 66,000 fewer visits than anticipated during Australia’s winter season. But there were also noticeable declines in:

• • Students, from 671,359 at the end of March 2024 to 608,262 by the end of June 2024
  • Working holidaymakers, from 183,668 to 173,216
  • Other temporary residents on employment visas, from 171,013 to 145,112

    Conversely, there were significant increases in:

  • Skilled temporary entrants, from 153,991 to 168,725
  • Temporary graduates, from 199,897 to 216,494
  • Bridging visa holders, from 286,293 to 297,372

    In April and May of 2024, the net permanent and long-term moves came to 47,710. Although the estimate for June is not yet available, it can indicate a slight improvement or decrease. Trends in the Number of Students and Temporary Graduates
    The following variables are probably the cause of the decline in student enrollment in the June quarter of 2024:

    • Permanent departures, particularly among students from China
    • Returning home for the end of semester and planning to come back for the next term
    • Delays in securing new student or temporary graduate visas due to a backlog in bridging visas
    • Obtaining a temporary graduate visa in June

    By the end of September 2024, the number of student visa holders is expected to increase due to:

    • Returning students
    • A surge in offshore student visa grants from June 2024
    • Onshore applicants in the bridging visa backlog receiving student visas in July and August 2024

  As of September 30, 2023, 664,178 people were in possession of student visas. By the end of September 2024, this number should be marginally higher, although growth will be slower than it was the year before. The government hopes to achieve a long-term net migration of 235,000 students yearly, thus even with slower development, the number of overseas students is not anticipated to fall.

  Since borders reopened in early 2022, the number of temporary graduates has increased dramatically, from 95,259 to 216,494 by June 2024. This group usually experiences robust growth in the months of June and December.

  The government will need to control this expansion and take further policy changes into consideration in order to address the growing number of people who are in immigration limbo. Stricter requirements for temporary graduate visas may be part of this, with an emphasis on programs in high-demand fields like IT, healthcare, and education.

  In order to reach migration ambitions, it will also be essential to resolve quality issues in Australia’s foreign education industry and modify rules regarding working holidaymakers. Plans to reduce the permanent migration program might make matters worse and result in more people being in immigration uncertainty.