Australia’s net migration of citizens reversed prior patterns and reached a record positive in 2023–2024. Strong labor market conditions also contributed to net migration exceeding projections.
With the exception of the first year of COVID-19, the net movement of Australian citizens in 2023–2024 hit a new positive record of 37,380, marking a dramatic reversal from prior years. The government’s projected net migration of 395,000 for 2023–24 is called into question by this change.
Australian Citizens’ Net Migration
Australian nationals have historically experienced negative net migration, which has been impacted by both domestic labor market conditions and worldwide events. For instance, more Australians went home than departed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. On the other hand, there were more extended absences due to Australia’s high unemployment rate, such as between 2013–14 and 2015–16.
COVID-19’s effects
Following the COVID-19 epidemic, Australian nationals’ net migration was at an all-time low. It was negative 380,510 in 2021–2022 and negative 242,610 in 2022–2023 respectively. Despite an overall net migration of slightly less than 550,000, this resulted in a net migration of negative 32,200 Australian residents in 2022–2023.
Reversal in 2023–2024
In 2023–2024, there was a positive net movement of 37,380 Australian citizens, reversing the trend. Compared to China, New Zealand, the UK, and Europe, Australia has a stronger labor market, which is probably the cause of this shift. As a result, it is anticipated that in 2023–2024, Australian nationals will favorably impact net migration.
Government Projections and Their Consequences
Within a forecast of 395,000, the Treasury’s Center for Population estimated that 20,000 Australian citizens will contribute negatively to net migration in 2023–2024. However, it looks that the actual net migration will be much higher than 400,000, with net permanent and long-term movements for the 11 months leading up to May 2024 reaching 445,510.
Political Consequences
The ABS will release the final net migration statistics in the latter part of 2024. Given that the increase in net migration is partially attributable to past government actions that were not swiftly reversed, this result is likely to become a political hot potato.