Labor’s asylum plan will have difficulties in reducing the backlog that the Coalition left behind. Increased applications put stress on the system, but faster processing indicates progress.

The enormous task of resolving the asylum seeker situation that its predecessor left behind is being faced by the new administration. The Labor Government is making painstaking but necessary steps to get the system back on track, while the number of asylum claims is increasing.

An Investment of $160 Million to Reduce the Backlog

To address the growing backlog of asylum requests, the government promised an additional $160 million over the course of four years in late 2023. This choice was made in the wake of a system that was overtaken by a massive labor trafficking scheme that had continued since 2016, made worse by the previous administration’s incapacity to handle the matter. The asylum system was left in disorder due to underinvestment, as it was unable to handle the increase in claims. The purpose of the additional financing was to reduce the amount of opportunistic and false claims clogging the system by expediting case processing at both the initial application stage and the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT).

Improvements in Processing Speed, but Still a Long Way to Go Forward

The financing announcement was made over a year ago, and we are starting to notice the initial effects. Improving the efficiency of processing asylum applications was one of the main objectives in order to stop the application rate from going out of control. Following the reopening of international borders, the monthly volume of applications increased to approximately 2,200. This rate was kept constant due to speedier processing, which started in early 2024, keeping it from breaking the previous record of almost 2,700 per month.

The backlog of primary-level asylum claims has somewhat decreased as a result of the expedited processing. By August 2024, there were only 31,842 open cases, down from a peak of 32,807 in March 2024. With a record 2,726 applications handled in August alone, the procedure is sluggish. The question of whether this processing speed can be maintained is still open, and the task is far from done.

High Refusal Rates: Eliminating Unworthy Claims

The government has maintained a high primary rejection rate, ranging from 85 to 90 percent, despite the speedier pace, especially for applicants from countries like Malaysia, China, India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and other Pacific nations. Although this approach is essential for controlling the quantity of applications, it has also resulted in a rise in appeals.

A Rise in Appeals: An Additional Increasing Backlog

The AAT is seeing a continuous increase in appeals as a result of the quicker processing of asylum cases. The AAT was processing between 600 and 800 appeals per month in the first half of 2023, but by August 2024, that figure had risen to 1,830. The number of monthly choices increased with the new financing, peaking at 2,446 in May 2024; but, by August, this number had declined to approximately 1,750. Regretfully, the AAT backlog is still a serious problem; it has plateaued at 41,000, a considerable increase from 5,000 in 2016.

Concerning Development: Rejected Asylum Seekers Remain in the Nation

AAT processes more quickly is one thing, but making sure people whose claims are rejected actually leave the country is a whole different story. The total number of asylum applicants who were turned down at the AAT but had not yet left reached a record 44,427 by August 2024. This brings the total number of asylum seekers in Australia at this time up to 117,529.

The Increasing Influence of Holders of Temporary Visas

With more than 1.1 million students, temporary graduates, and former students living in Australia, it is anticipated that this population would submit more asylum claims as their options for visas become more limited. Asylum claims are expected to rise significantly by 2025, especially from former students looking to extend their stay in the country.

The Way Ahead: Three Crucial Choices
The government may employ one of three tactics to deal with the rising number of rejected asylum applicants:

1. Mass Detention and Deportation Program: This strategy would entail extensive detention and removal programs, much like the strict measures put forward in the United States. Nevertheless, these initiatives are infamously costly and frequently fall short of their goals. They can also spark large-scale protests and public outrage, which makes them politically unstable.

2. Regularization Program: Putting in place a well thought-out regularization program would be a more deliberate strategy. This would reduce the possibility of drawing in further applications while attempting to reintegrate rejected asylum seekers into the judicial system. But because of the risks involved, these programs are rarely approved by governments and can become extremely contentious.

3. Ignoring the Issue: Regrettably, a lot of governments eventually decide to overlook the issue in the hopes that it would go away on its own. This was the previous administration’s default strategy, and many in government still find it to be an alluring choice today.

Australia’s Asylum System’s Future

The future of Australia’s asylum system is still unknown. Although the Labor Government has made significant progress in clearing the backlog and expediting processing, the fundamental problems remain unresolved.

In order to keep the system from being overloaded once more, the government must act decisively as the number of asylum seekers rises, especially among former students. The future of Australia’s asylum system will be a critical test for the present administration, whether through expedited processing, stricter border controls, or long-term regularization measures.